At Home and Abroad: An Empirical Analysis of Innovation and Diffusion in Energy-Efficient Technologies

This paper contributes to the induced innovation literature by extending the analysis of supply and demand determinants of innovation in energy-efficient technologies to account for international knowledge flows and spillovers. In the first part of the paper we select a sample of 38 innovating countries and we study how knowledge related to energy-efficient technologies flows across geographical and technological space. We demonstrate that higher geographical and technological distances are associated with a lower probability of knowledge flow. In the second part of the paper, we use our previous estimates to construct stocks of internal and external knowledge for a panel of 17 countries and present an econometric analysis of the supply and demand determinants of innovation accounting for international knowledge spillovers. Our results confirm the role of demand-pull effects, as proxied by energy prices, as well as that of technological opportunity, as proxied by the knowledge stocks. In particular, this paper provides evidence that spillovers between countries have a significant positive impact on further innovation in energy-efficient technologies.Innovation, Technology Diffusion, Knowledge Spillovers, Energy-Efficient Technologies

The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey

In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models.Expert Elicitation, Research, Development and Demonstration, Solar Technologies

Threshold policy effects and directed technical change in Energy Innovation

This paper analyzes the effect of environmental policies on the direction of energy innovation across countries over the period 1990-2012. Our novelty is to use threshold regression models to allow for discontinuities in policy effectiveness depending on a country's relative competencies in renewable and fossil fuel technologies. We show that the dynamic incentives of environmental policies become effective just above the median level of relative competencies. In this critical second regime, market-based policies are moderately effective in promoting renewable innovation, while commandand-control policies depress fossil based innovation. Finally, market-based policies are more effective to consolidate a green comparative advantage in the last regime. We illustrate how our approach can be used for policy design in laggard countries

The Future Costs of Nuclear Power Using Multiple Expert Elicitations: Effects of RD&D and Elicitation Design

Characterization of the anticipated performance of energy technologies to inform policy decisions increasingly relies on expert elicitation. Knowledge about how elicitation design factors impact the probabilistic estimates emerging from these studies is, however, scarce. We focus on nuclear power, a large-scale low-carbon power option, for which future cost estimates are important for the design of energy policies and climate change mitigation efforts. We use data from three elicitations in the USA and in Europe and assess the role of government research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investments on expected nuclear costs in 2030. We show that controlling for expert, technology, and design characteristics increases experts' implied public RD&D elasticity of expected costs by 25%. Public sector and industry experts' cost expectations are 14% and 32% higher, respectively than academics. US experts are more optimistic than their EU counterparts, with median expected costs 22% lower. On average, a doubling of public RD&D is expected to result in an 8% cost reduction, but the uncertainty is large. The difference between the 90th and 10th percentile estimates is on average 58% of the experts' median estimates. Public RD&D investments do not affect uncertainty ranges, but US experts are less confident about costs than Europeans

Energy intensity developments in 40 major economies: structural change or technology improvement?

This study analyzes energy intensity trends and drivers in 40 major economies using the WIOD database, a novel harmonized and consistent dataset of input-output table time series accompanied by environmental satellite data. We use logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition to (1) study trends in global energy intensity between 1995 and 2007, (2) attribute efficiency changes to either changes in technology or changes in the structure of the economy, and (3) highlight sectoral and regional differences. We first show that heterogeneity within each sector across countries is high. These general trends within the sectors are dominated by large economies, first and foremost the United States. In most cases, heterogeneity is lower within each country across the different sectors. Regarding changes of energy intensity at the country level, improvements between 1995 and 2007 are largely attributable to technological change while structural change is less important in most countries. Notable exceptions are Japan, the United States, Australia, Taiwan, Mexico and Brazil where a change in the industry mix was the main driver behind the observed energy intensity reduction

The Political Economy of Energy Innovation

This chapter empirically investigates the effects of environmental policy, institutions, political orientation, and lobbying on energy innovation and finds that they significantly affect the incentives to innovate and in creating cleaner energy efficient technologies. The results suggest that political economy factors may act as barriers to energy innovation even in the presence of stringent environmental policy. This implies that, in order to move towards a greener economy, countries should combine environmental policy with a general improvement of institutions, consider the influence of government’s political orientation on environmental policies as well as the size of energy intensive sectors

Bridging the gap: Do fast-reacting fossil technologies facilitate renewable energy diffusion?

The diffusion of renewable energy in the power system implies high supply variability. Lacking economically viable storage options, renewable energy integration is possible thanks to the presence of modern mid-merit fossil-based technologies, which act as back-up capacity. This paper discusses the role of modern fossil-based power generation technologies in supporting renewable energy investments. We study the deployment of these two technologies conditional on all other drivers in 26 OECD countries between 1990 and 2013. We show that moving from the first to the third quartile of the distribution of modern fossil technologies is associated with an increase in yearly renewable energy investment of between 6 and 14 kW per thousand people, on average and ceteris paribus. This is a sizeable effect, considering that average yearly renewable capacity addition in our sample are around 12 kW per thousand people. These findings are robust to different econometric specifications, various definitions of modern fossil technologies and are stronger for wind, which is more intermittent and for which the mismatch between supply and demand is more marked. Our analysis points to the substantial indirect costs of renewable energy integration and highlights the complementarity of investments in different generation technologies for a successful decarbonization process